The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Roma | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 4 |
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPTS | 12.4 | 5.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | +6.2 |
| xG per match | 3.22 | 1.09 |
| xGA per match | 1.11 | 1.75 |
| Scored | 14 | 5 |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 |
By quality of play Roma is ahead: 12.4 xPTS against 5.8. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Roma: +0.6, Cagliari: +6.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Roma — 12.0, Cagliari — 2.7.