The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Hoffenheim created more (2.17 xG against 2.02) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 2 | 2.17 | −0.2 | 1.48 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2.02 | +1.0 | 1.32 |
Hoffenheim: −2.8 for the season (14 in the table). Borussia Dortmund: +3.9 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.