The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
RB Leipzig created more (1.58 xG against 0.85) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 3 | 0.85 | +2.1 | 0.86 |
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 1.58 | −0.6 | 1.89 |
Werder Bremen: +2.4 for the season (8 in the table). RB Leipzig: −1.8 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.