VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund 0:1

VfB Stuttgart

0:1

Borussia Dortmund

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Borussia Dortmund was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
VfB Stuttgart	0	0.67	−0.7	0.50
Borussia Dortmund	1	2.11	−1.1	2.31

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
69'	Maximilian Beier	Borussia Dortmund	0.60	Jobe Bellingham

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
69'	Maximilian Beier	Borussia Dortmund	0.60	goal
3'	Maximilian Beier	Borussia Dortmund	0.46	off target, header
17'	Nico Schlotterbeck	Borussia Dortmund	0.37	off target, header, from a corner

Shots: VfB Stuttgart 12, Borussia Dortmund 13; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was VfB Stuttgart 0.22, Borussia Dortmund 1.12: a clear edge for Borussia Dortmund. In the second half xG was VfB Stuttgart 0.45, Borussia Dortmund 0.98: a small edge for Borussia Dortmund. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Borussia Dortmund scored 1 from 2.11 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 for the season (8 in the table). Borussia Dortmund: +5.3 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Borussia Mönchengladbach — Mainz 05 3:4Eintracht Frankfurt — Freiburg 2:2Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln 2:1Werder Bremen — Augsburg 3:2

All Bundesliga matches with xG →