The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Borussia Dortmund was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0.67 | −0.7 | 0.50 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.11 | −1.1 | 2.31 |
VfB Stuttgart: −0.6 for the season (15 in the table). Borussia Dortmund: +3.9 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.