Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln 2:1

Hamburger SV

2:1

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · 19 Sep 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score2:1

Home xG2.08Hamburger SV

Away xG2.161. FC Köln

Expected points1.35 : 1.44

Who deserved it

1. FC Köln created more (2.16 xG against 2.08) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Hamburger SV	2	2.08	−0.1	1.35
1. FC Köln	1	2.16	−1.2	1.44

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
43'	Nicolás Capaldo	Hamburger SV	0.54	Albert Grønbæk
48'	Yussuf Poulsen	Hamburger SV	0.37	Albert Grønbæk
89'	Ragnar Ache	1. FC Köln	0.33	Ellyes Skhiri

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
37'	Thijs Dallinga	1. FC Köln	0.65	saved, header
43'	Nicolás Capaldo	Hamburger SV	0.54	goal, header, from a corner
68'	Yussuf Poulsen	Hamburger SV	0.47	saved

Shots: Hamburger SV 12, 1. FC Köln 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Hamburger SV 0.60, 1. FC Köln 0.99: a small edge for 1. FC Köln. In the second half xG was Hamburger SV 1.54, 1. FC Köln 1.20: a small edge for Hamburger SV. The edge in chances passed from 1. FC Köln to Hamburger SV. 1. FC Köln scored 1 from 2.16 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.