The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
1. FC Köln created more (2.16 xG against 2.08) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 2 | 2.08 | −0.1 | 1.35 |
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 2.16 | −1.2 | 1.45 |
Hamburger SV: +0.2 for the season (16 in the table). 1. FC Köln: −1.8 (13). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.