The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Arsenal are favourites: 56% to win against 19%. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.58 expected goals a match against 1.27. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2 | 5 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 1.88 | 1.09 |
| Leeds United | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.8 | 1.45 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.