Pitch Radar

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win74%Manchester United
Draw15%
Away win10%Tottenham Hotspur
Expected points, home2.38

What to expect

Manchester United are favourites: 74% to win against 10%. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.30. Tottenham Hotspur are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Manchester United12558.3−3.42.121.44
Tottenham Hotspur20525.5−3.51.161.84

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →