The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester United are favourites: 74% to win against 10%. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.30. Tottenham Hotspur are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | −3.4 | 2.12 | 1.44 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5.5 | −3.5 | 1.16 | 1.84 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.