The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Brentford are favourites: 69% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Brentford should create more, 2.13 expected goals a match against 1.25.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 16 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Brentford | 4 | 5 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 2.10 | 1.50 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.