The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 37% home, 22% draw, 41% away. Attack against defence: Bournemouth should create more, 1.84 expected goals a match against 1.59. Bournemouth are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 1.79 | 2.06 |
| Bournemouth | 17 | 5 | 3 | 7.8 | −4.8 | 1.62 | 1.40 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.