Chelsea — Bournemouth 5:1

Chelsea

5:1

Bournemouth

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Bournemouth created more (1.68 xG against 1.37) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Chelsea	5	1.37	+3.6	1.18
Bournemouth	1	1.68	−0.7	1.58

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
1'	Jordan Henderson	Chelsea	0.04	Cole Palmer
2'	Morgan Rogers	Chelsea	0.06	Jordan Henderson
45'	João Pedro	Chelsea	0.11	Pedro Neto
50'	Evanilson	Bournemouth	0.79
66'	João Pedro	Chelsea	0.53	Pep Chavarría
69'	Jordan Henderson	Chelsea	0.04

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
50'	Evanilson	Bournemouth	0.79	goal, from a corner
66'	João Pedro	Chelsea	0.53	goal
2'	Pedro Neto	Chelsea	0.33	saved

Shots: Chelsea 10, Bournemouth 9; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Chelsea 0.80, Bournemouth 0.36: a small edge for Chelsea. In the second half xG was Chelsea 0.57, Bournemouth 1.33: a small edge for Bournemouth. The edge in chances passed from Chelsea to Bournemouth. Chelsea scored 5 from 1.37 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Chelsea: +3.2 for the season (5 in the table). Bournemouth: −3.6 (7). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Arsenal — Leeds United 2:1Aston Villa — Brentford 2:2Ipswich Town — Fulham 2:1Sunderland — Brighton 0:2Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur 1:1

All EPL matches with xG →