The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 39% home, 19% draw, 42% away. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 2.17 expected goals a match against 1.87. Sunderland are 3.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 14 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | −3.7 | 2.01 | 1.77 |
| Brighton | 3 | 5 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 2.58 | 1.73 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.