The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Sunderland: 53% against 26%. Attack against defence: Sunderland should create more, 1.92 expected goals a match against 1.44. Sunderland are 4.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 14 | 6 | 5 | 5.8 | −0.8 | 1.14 | 2.02 |
| Sunderland | 16 | 6 | 4 | 8.4 | −4.5 | 1.82 | 1.75 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.