The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester City are favourites: 71% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Manchester City should create more, 2.02 expected goals a match against 1.47. Read the table with care: Manchester City have taken 6.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1 | 6 | 18 | 11.7 | +6.3 | 2.10 | 1.32 |
| Fulham | 20 | 6 | 2 | 6.8 | −4.8 | 1.62 | 1.95 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.