The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Chelsea: 43% against 34%. Attack against defence: level, 1.59 and 1.70 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Chelsea have taken 2.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 6 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
| Leeds United | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 1.40 | 1.46 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.