The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Arsenal are favourites: 60% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.90 expected goals a match against 1.20. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 3.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 11 | 6 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 1.29 | 1.83 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 6 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | 1.96 | 1.11 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.