The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 32% home, 27% draw, 40% away. Attack against defence: Nottingham Forest should create more, 1.54 expected goals a match against 1.31. Bournemouth are 6.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 17 | 6 | 3 | 9.3 | −6.3 | 1.63 | 1.39 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13 | 5 | 5 | 9.2 | −4.2 | 1.70 | 1.00 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.