The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Nottingham Forest created more (1.32 xG against 0.69) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 0 | 1.32 | −1.3 | 1.84 |
| Coventry City | 1 | 0.69 | +0.3 | 0.88 |
Nottingham Forest: −4.2 for the season (13 in the table). Coventry City: −1.6 (18). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.