Nottingham Forest — Coventry City 0:1

Nottingham Forest

0:1

Coventry City

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Nottingham Forest created more (1.32 xG against 0.69) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Nottingham Forest	0	1.32	−1.3	1.84
Coventry City	1	0.69	+0.3	0.87

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
54'	Jay Dasilva	Coventry City	0.28	Carl Rushworth

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
75'	Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	0.37	blocked
54'	Jay Dasilva	Coventry City	0.28	goal
45'	James McAtee	Nottingham Forest	0.12	blocked

Shots: Nottingham Forest 24, Coventry City 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.69, Coventry City 0.21: a small edge for Nottingham Forest. In the second half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.64, Coventry City 0.47: about even. Nottingham Forest scored 0 from 1.32 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Nottingham Forest: −8.6 for the season (16 in the table). Coventry City: −0.8 (17). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa 2:3Newcastle United — Hull City 2:1Brighton — Arsenal 3:0Everton — Ipswich Town 1:0

All EPL matches with xG →