Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa 2:3

Tottenham Hotspur

2:3

Aston Villa

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Tottenham Hotspur created more (1.72 xG against 1.71) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Tottenham Hotspur	2	1.72	+0.3	1.39
Aston Villa	3	1.71	+1.3	1.38

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
48'	Johan Manzambi	Aston Villa	0.70	Boubacar Kamara
66'	Nicolas Jackson	Aston Villa	0.12	Johan Manzambi
78'	Emiliano Buendía	Aston Villa	0.02	John McGinn
85'	Conor Gallagher	Tottenham Hotspur	0.38	Mohammed Kudus
97'	Jan Paul van Hecke	Tottenham Hotspur	0.36	Andrew Robertson

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
48'	Johan Manzambi	Aston Villa	0.70	goal
85'	Conor Gallagher	Tottenham Hotspur	0.38	goal
97'	Jan Paul van Hecke	Tottenham Hotspur	0.36	goal, header, from a set piece

Shots: Tottenham Hotspur 20, Aston Villa 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Tottenham Hotspur 0.66, Aston Villa 0.20: a small edge for Tottenham Hotspur. In the second half xG was Tottenham Hotspur 1.06, Aston Villa 1.56: a small edge for Aston Villa. The edge in chances passed from Tottenham Hotspur to Aston Villa. Aston Villa scored 3 from 1.71 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Tottenham Hotspur: −2.3 for the season (11 in the table). Aston Villa: +2.5 (10). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Newcastle United — Hull City 2:1Brighton — Arsenal 3:0Everton — Ipswich Town 1:0Nottingham Forest — Coventry City 0:1

All EPL matches with xG →