Nottingham Forest — Leeds United 0:1

Nottingham Forest

0:1

Leeds United

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Nottingham Forest created more (0.66 xG against 0.47) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Nottingham Forest	0	0.66	−0.7	1.47
Leeds United	1	0.47	+0.5	1.10

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
87'	Anton Stach	Leeds United	0.04

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
54'	Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	0.14	off target, header, from a set piece
85'	Dominic Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	0.10	blocked
40'	Nikola Milenkovic	Nottingham Forest	0.08	hit the woodwork, header, from a corner

Shots: Nottingham Forest 12, Leeds United 11; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.22, Leeds United 0.13: about even. In the second half xG was Nottingham Forest 0.44, Leeds United 0.35: about even.

How it fits the season

Nottingham Forest: −8.6 for the season (16 in the table). Leeds United: +0.1 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Hull City — Manchester United 2:0Everton — Crystal Palace 2:0Ipswich Town — Sunderland 2:1Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur 3:0

All EPL matches with xG →