The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Nottingham Forest created more (0.66 xG against 0.47) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 0 | 0.66 | −0.7 | 1.47 |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0.47 | +0.5 | 1.10 |
Nottingham Forest: −4.2 for the season (13 in the table). Leeds United: +1.8 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.