The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Sunderland created more (2.07 xG against 1.99) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 0 | 2.07 | −2.1 | 1.44 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 1.99 | +0.0 | 1.35 |
Sunderland: −3.7 for the season (14 in the table). Arsenal: +2.2 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.