Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest 1:2

Aston Villa

1:2

Nottingham Forest

EPL · 12 Sep 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score1:2

Home xG1.09Aston Villa

Away xG2.79Nottingham Forest

Expected points0.52 : 2.33

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Nottingham Forest was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Aston Villa	1	1.09	−0.1	0.52
Nottingham Forest	2	2.79	−0.8	2.33

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
45'	Liam Delap	Nottingham Forest	0.01	Murillo
73'	Alysson Edward	Aston Villa	0.25	John McGinn
87'	Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	0.53	Morgan Gibbs-White

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
57'	Liam Delap	Nottingham Forest	0.63	off target
6'	Victor Lindelöf	Aston Villa	0.60	saved
58'	Dan Ndoye	Nottingham Forest	0.54	off target, header

Shots: Aston Villa 7, Nottingham Forest 22; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Aston Villa 0.77, Nottingham Forest 0.21: a small edge for Aston Villa. In the second half xG was Aston Villa 0.32, Nottingham Forest 2.60: a big edge for Nottingham Forest. The edge in chances passed from Aston Villa to Nottingham Forest.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.

How it fits the season

Aston Villa: +2.5 for the season (10 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −8.6 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.