The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Nottingham Forest was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1 | 1.09 | −0.1 | 0.51 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 | 2.79 | −0.8 | 2.34 |
Aston Villa: +0.0 for the season (16 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −4.2 (13). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.