Bournemouth — Brentford 2:2

Bournemouth

2:2

Brentford

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Bournemouth created more (2.55 xG against 0.79) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Bournemouth	2	2.55	−0.5	2.41
Brentford	2	0.79	+1.2	0.43

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
33'	Kevin Schade	Brentford	0.33	Yehor Yarmolyuk
37'	Justin Kluivert	Bournemouth	0.06
51'	Marcus Tavernier	Bournemouth	0.07	Evanilson
55'	Kevin Schade	Brentford	0.11

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
48'	António Silva	Bournemouth	0.65	off target, header, from a corner
36'	Rayan	Bournemouth	0.46	off target
6'	António Silva	Bournemouth	0.38	off target, header, from a set piece

Shots: Bournemouth 20, Brentford 8; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Bournemouth 0.97, Brentford 0.51: a small edge for Bournemouth. In the second half xG was Bournemouth 1.61, Brentford 0.28: a clear edge for Bournemouth. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Brentford scored 2 from 0.79 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Bournemouth: −3.6 for the season (7 in the table). Brentford: +0.9 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest 1:2Chelsea — Hull City 2:2Crystal Palace — Ipswich Town 2:3Liverpool — Fulham 0:0Tottenham Hotspur — Everton 0:0Sunderland — Arsenal 0:2

All EPL matches with xG →