Pitch Radar

Levante vs Atlético Madrid: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 11 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win20%Levante
Draw19%
Away win61%Atlético Madrid
Expected points, home0.78

What to expect

Atlético Madrid are favourites: 61% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Atlético Madrid should create more, 2.09 expected goals a match against 1.38. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 3.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Levante17656.4−1.41.552.22
Atlético Madrid271612.8+3.21.961.21

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →