The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Athletic Club are favourites: 60% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 1.84 expected goals a match against 1.17. Athletic Club are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7.1 | −3.1 | 0.92 | 1.99 |
| Athletic Club | 11 | 7 | 9 | 12.5 | −3.5 | 1.69 | 1.42 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.