The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Racing Santander: 44% against 31%. Attack against defence: Racing Santander should create more, 1.70 expected goals a match against 1.54. Málaga are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 20 | 7 | 3 | 5.4 | −2.4 | 0.81 | 2.00 |
| Racing Santander | 16 | 7 | 7 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 1.40 | 2.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.