The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Real Sociedad: 44% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.55 and 1.61 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Real Sociedad have taken 5.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 9 | 16 | 10.4 | +5.6 | 1.47 | 1.90 |
| Sevilla | 6 | 9 | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 | 1.32 | 1.63 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.