Pitch Radar

Le Havre vs Auxerre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win47%Le Havre
Draw22%
Away win31%Auxerre
Expected points, home1.62

What to expect

A slight edge to Le Havre: 47% against 31%. Attack against defence: level, 1.73 and 1.72 expected goals a match. Le Havre are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Le Havre18524.4−2.41.312.06
Auxerre10565.7+0.31.372.14

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →