Pitch Radar

Lille vs Le Havre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win56%Lille
Draw21%
Away win23%Le Havre
Expected points, home1.89

What to expect

Lille are favourites: 56% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: Lille should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.54. Read the table with care: Lille have taken 3.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lille45106.1+3.91.481.78
Le Havre18524.4−2.41.312.06

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →