The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Paris Saint-Germain are favourites: 79% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Paris Saint-Germain should create more, 2.14 expected goals a match against 1.36. Paris Saint-Germain are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | 2.19 | 1.16 |
| Le Mans | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 1.56 | 2.09 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.