Pitch Radar

Monaco vs Toulouse: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win35%Monaco
Draw25%
Away win40%Toulouse
Expected points, home1.30

What to expect

No clear favourite: 35% home, 25% draw, 40% away. Attack against defence: Toulouse should create more, 1.72 expected goals a match against 1.44. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Monaco15136.8+6.21.231.32
Toulouse13558.9−4.02.121.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →