Pitch Radar

Lorient vs Paris FC: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win15%Lorient
Draw30%
Away win54%Paris FC
Expected points, home0.76

What to expect

A slight edge to Paris FC: 54% against 15%. Attack against defence: Paris FC should create more, 1.56 expected goals a match against 0.91.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lorient12556.4−1.41.161.23
Paris FC351111.1−0.11.890.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →