Pitch Radar

Lille vs Lyon: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win29%Lille
Draw25%
Away win47%Lyon
Expected points, home1.11

What to expect

A slight edge to Lyon: 47% against 29%. Attack against defence: Lyon should create more, 1.73 expected goals a match against 1.34. Read the table with care: Lille have taken 5.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lille26137.9+5.11.461.62
Lyon361110.2+0.81.831.22

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →