The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Brest are favourites: 72% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Brest should create more, 2.17 expected goals a match against 1.15. Brest are 4.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 11 | 6 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 1.15 | 1.86 |
| Brest | 7 | 6 | 8 | 12.6 | −4.6 | 2.48 | 1.16 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.