Pitch Radar

Monaco vs Auxerre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win56%Monaco
Draw23%
Away win21%Auxerre
Expected points, home1.92

What to expect

Monaco are favourites: 56% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Monaco should create more, 1.69 expected goals a match against 1.35. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 6.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Monaco16148.0+6.01.231.33
Auxerre14565.7+0.31.372.14

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →