Pitch Radar

Lyon vs Monaco: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win60%Lyon
Draw24%
Away win16%Monaco
Expected points, home2.05

What to expect

Lyon are favourites: 60% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: Lyon should create more, 1.60 expected goals a match against 1.17. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 5.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lyon171412.1+1.91.811.21
Monaco57148.3+5.71.131.39

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →