Points. 13 points from 6.8 xPTS (+6.2) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 7th in the league, but 1st in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+1.8 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−3.6 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.23 xG per match — 15th of 18 (league average 1.65): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 8 goals from 6.2 xG (+1.8): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.32 xGA per match — 6th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 3 goals from 6.6 xGA — 3.6 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. The defence itself is one of the most solid in the league, so even after a correction they will concede little.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 1.24 per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 2.6.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 2.60 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.22. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | home | 2026-10-10 | 1.31 |
| Lorient | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.19 |
| Lille | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.72 |
| Paris FC | away | 2026-10-31 | 0.47 |
| Le Mans | away | 2026-11-07 | 1.40 |