Pitch Radar

Nice vs Rennes: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win26%Nice
Draw21%
Away win53%Rennes
Expected points, home0.99

What to expect

A slight edge to Rennes: 53% against 26%. Attack against defence: Rennes should create more, 2.02 expected goals a match against 1.56. Read the table with care: Rennes have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Nice14554.1+0.91.091.96
Rennes55107.5+2.52.082.03

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →