Pitch Radar

Nice vs Troyes: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win46%Nice
Draw25%
Away win29%Troyes
Expected points, home1.63

What to expect

A slight edge to Nice: 46% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.56 and 1.49 expected goals a match. Troyes are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Nice13787.4+0.61.171.71
Troyes17746.3−2.31.271.95

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →