Pitch Radar

Paris FC vs Monaco: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win68%Paris FC
Draw23%
Away win9%Monaco
Expected points, home2.27

What to expect

Paris FC are favourites: 68% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Paris FC should create more, 1.60 expected goals a match against 0.95. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Paris FC351111.1−0.11.890.66
Monaco15136.8+6.21.231.32

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →