AC Milan — Bologna 2:4

AC Milan

2:4

Bologna

Serie A · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score2:4

Home xG1.95AC Milan

Away xG1.99Bologna

Expected points1.37 : 1.42

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Bologna was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
AC Milan	2	1.95	+0.1	1.37
Bologna	4	1.99	+2.0	1.42

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
7'	Samuel Mbangula	Bologna	0.53	Nadir Zortea
13'	Alphadjo Cissè	AC Milan	0.33
26'	Alphadjo Cissè	AC Milan	0.66	Fikayo Tomori
59'	Davide Bartesaghi (own goal)	Bologna	—
61'	Samuel Mbangula	Bologna	0.53	Juan Miranda
85'	Samuel Mbangula	Bologna	0.40	Jens Odgaard

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
26'	Alphadjo Cissè	AC Milan	0.66	goal
88'	Christian Pulisic	AC Milan	0.54	saved, header
7'	Samuel Mbangula	Bologna	0.53	goal

Shots: AC Milan 8, Bologna 9; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 4.

How the game went

In the first half xG was AC Milan 1.07, Bologna 0.58: a small edge for AC Milan. In the second half xG was AC Milan 0.91, Bologna 1.42: a small edge for Bologna. The edge in chances passed from AC Milan to Bologna. Bologna scored 4 from 1.99 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.