Pitch Radar

AC Milan vs Bologna: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 9 · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win53%AC Milan
Draw25%
Away win22%Bologna
Expected points, home1.84

What to expect

A slight edge to AC Milan: 53% against 22%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 1.57 expected goals a match against 1.30. Bologna are 6.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18
Bologna18528.0−6.01.431.21

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →