Pitch Radar

Genoa vs Juventus: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 9 · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win6%Genoa
Draw24%
Away win70%Juventus
Expected points, home0.43

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 70% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 1.72 expected goals a match against 0.69. Genoa are 3.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Genoa19514.6−3.60.971.58
Juventus751012.1−2.11.850.42

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →