Pitch Radar

Cagliari vs Juventus: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win6%Cagliari
Draw21%
Away win73%Juventus
Expected points, home0.39

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 73% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 1.80 expected goals a match against 0.76. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Cagliari45125.8+6.21.091.75
Juventus751012.1−2.11.850.42

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →