Pitch Radar

Lazio vs Monza: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win43%Lazio
Draw23%
Away win35%Monza
Expected points, home1.50

What to expect

No clear favourite: 43% home, 23% draw, 35% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.65 and 1.75 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Lazio have taken 5.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lazio35138.0+5.01.811.52
Monza16548.7−4.71.981.48

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →