Pitch Radar

Sassuolo vs AC Milan: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win34%Sassuolo
Draw23%
Away win43%AC Milan
Expected points, home1.24

What to expect

A slight edge to AC Milan: 43% against 34%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.52. Read the table with care: AC Milan have taken 2.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Sassuolo10577.6−0.61.861.65
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →