The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Fiorentina: 54% against 24%. Attack against defence: Fiorentina should create more, 1.78 expected goals a match against 1.59. Fiorentina are 6.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 18 | 9 | 5 | 11.0 | −6.0 | 1.49 | 1.89 |
| Cagliari | 10 | 9 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 | 1.30 | 2.07 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions