The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Inter are favourites: 85% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Inter should create more, 2.52 expected goals a match against 1.51. Fiorentina are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | 3.11 | 1.49 |
| Fiorentina | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.