The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Juventus are favourites: 72% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 1.84 expected goals a match against 0.91. Fiorentina are 3.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 18 | 6 | 4 | 7.2 | −3.2 | 1.41 | 1.83 |
| Juventus | 7 | 5 | 10 | 12.1 | −2.1 | 1.85 | 0.42 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.