Pitch Radar

Napoli vs Lazio: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win58%Napoli
Draw21%
Away win21%Lazio
Expected points, home1.96

What to expect

Napoli are favourites: 58% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Napoli should create more, 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.52. Read the table with care: Lazio have taken 5.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Napoli661011.7−1.72.071.23
Lazio35138.0+5.01.811.52

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →