Pitch Radar

Genoa vs AC Milan: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win21%Genoa
Draw26%
Away win53%AC Milan
Expected points, home0.88

What to expect

A slight edge to AC Milan: 53% against 21%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 1.69 expected goals a match against 1.10. Genoa are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Genoa16646.4−2.41.031.45
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →