Pitch Radar

Lazio vs Cagliari: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win66%Lazio
Draw20%
Away win15%Cagliari
Expected points, home2.17

What to expect

Lazio are favourites: 66% to win against 15%. Attack against defence: Lazio should create more, 1.78 expected goals a match against 1.31. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lazio35138.0+5.01.811.52
Cagliari45125.8+6.21.091.75

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →