Pitch Radar

Lecce vs Genoa: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win33%Lecce
Draw25%
Away win42%Genoa
Expected points, home1.23

What to expect

A slight edge to Genoa: 42% against 33%. Attack against defence: Genoa should create more, 1.96 expected goals a match against 1.42. Read the table with care: Lecce have taken 3.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lecce12562.2+3.81.252.96
Genoa19514.6−3.60.971.58

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →